Beware the Disproportionality Fallacy

Life isn’t fair

We all know life isn’t fair, which is maybe why it’s so easy for us to continue using bad arguments to simplify situations into problems easily solved if only everyone else could see as clearly as we. Case in point, race relations in the United States.

Black Americans make up 13% of the general population, and yet they account for 38% of the prison population.¹

Assuming that life should be proportional by race, that’s an obvious disproportionality. Furthermore, we know that Blacks used to be slaves in this country (i.e., discriminated against), and so that knowledge, coupled with this modern day disproportionality, can only mean that Blacks are still being discriminated against.

Right?

Isn’t that the simplest, most straightforward explanation?

It’s definitely simple and straightforward, but is it the most likely explanation? Let’s think about that.

In order to pick the most likely explanation, you must first be aware of other possible explanations. Also it’s possible that things are not as simple as they seem; maybe several contributing factors come into play.

What other factors, if any, might explain disproportionalities between groups that we think should be treated proportionally?

The short answer is culture.

“Culture can and does alter our brains, hormones, and anatomy, along with our perceptions, motivations, personalities, emotions, and many other aspects of our minds.” ²

But isn’t blaming ‘culture’, in this context, just another excuse for racism? Well of course it could be, but is it? (If you’re intent on seeing the world through racist lenses, then you will always see what you’re looking for.)

Culture

The short answer to “What other factors?” is culture. The long answer is that there are many aspects to a person’s life that affect what they do, how they live, and how others respond. Here are some examples from, “The Weirdest people in the world,” by Joseph Henrich. ³

• Religious convictions can powerfully shape decision-making, psychology, and society.

• Beliefs, practices, technologies, and social norms can shape our brains, biology, and psychology, including our motivations, mental abilities, and decision-making biases.

• Psychological changes induced by culture can shape all manner of subsequent events by influencing what people pay attention to, how they make decisions, which institutions they prefer, and how much they innovate.

One’s culture then, is made up of many things: education, religion, genetics, world history, ideology, family background, upbringing, socialization, and so on. In short, it’s complicated.

But why not just take the easy approach and always assume that disproportionalities must point to problems to be solved?

Because in most other contexts, that would be silly.

That would be silly

For example, the U.S. population is 6% Asian and 13% Black. And yet when we look at the percentage of players-by-race participating in the National Basketball Association (NBA), we find 1% Asian and 73% Black. That’s a whopping disproportionality if ever there was one. So what’s going on? Some sort of locker room discrimination? Asian racism?

Jews make up less than one percent of the world’s population, and yet they account for 22% of all Nobel prize recipients. Which is to say, “their share of winners is 110 times their proportion of the world’s population.” ⁴ Is that disproportionality indicative of some weird ethno-religious discrimination against non-Jews? Is there a problem to be fixed?

At nearly every age, divorce rates are higher for Black than for White women, and they are generally lowest among Asian and foreign-born Hispanic women.⁵ Are Black and White women discriminated against in favor of Asian and foreign-born Hispanic women, when it comes to picking long-term mates?

AIAN people (American Indian or Alaska Native) show the highest percentage of unrestrained passenger vehicle occupants killed (65%) followed by Black or African American people (61%).⁶ Obviously a disproportionate percentage of the population. What causes people to not wear seat belts. Systemic structural discrimination?

Whites make up 60% of the population but only 50% of the traffic accidents? ⁷ Are Whites just not trying hard enough. Is this a problem?

Not necessarily. And that’s the thing. It’s easy for us to use bad arguments to simplify problems, even when the world is complicated. And so we fall victim to the disproportionality fallacy.

It may in fact be true that Blacks are still systemically discriminated against in this country, but don’t use disproportionality as your proof, because if you do, then we’ll end up with goofy ‘solutions’ like affirmative action for White and Asian NBA players – you know, to make things more equal, to solve the disproportionality problem.

No.

Mind your portions

Try harder to understand what’s really going on, if anything. And beware the disproportionality fallacy.